2024 Election Path Forward

Short Term

• Members of the Democratic Party from former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Bill and Hillary Clinton, the Congressional Black Caucus and incumbent battleground senators are rallying behind Vice President Kamala Harris. (source)
• Vice President Harris raised more than $100 million between Sunday afternoon and Monday evening following Biden stepping aside and has secured not only key endorsements but enough delegate support to win the nomination. (source, source)
• Meanwhile, Congress is investigating the security failures of the Secret Service. On Tuesday, July 23, the Director of the Secret Service, Kimberly Cheatle, stepped down amid bipartisan criticism following her appearance at a House Oversight Committee hearing.
• President Biden instructed that an independent review of security at the Trump rally be conducted immediately and be “thorough and swift.”
• Even with the director’s resignation, Republicans will seek to keep the attempted assassination front and center—inCongress through a bipartisan task force with subpoena authority, and on the campaign trail through Trump’snarrative that he “took a bullet for democracy.”
• Trump named JD Vance, a first-term senator from Ohio, to be his running mate.◦ Most Republicans (79%) at the RNC did not support Trump’s VP choice and would have preferred Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL), Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin or former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley. (source)◦ We will continue to see Vance deployed in the Rust Belt states, as well as places like Virginia where Republicans are attempting to expand the map.
• Trump’s acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention was initially measured and reflected a call for unity, but the second half of the speech was less cohesive, covering a variety of topics. (source)
• The assassination attempt prompted statements from CEOs and business leaders condemning the violence. (source)
• The period leading up to the August recess is usually a busy time for legislative business in Congress, but it has beenovershadowed by the events of recent weeks as well as the lack of must-pass legislation.

Democratic Convention

• The AP reported on July 22 that Vice President Harris had secured the backing of more than the 1,976 delegates needed to win the nomination in the first round of voting. The pledged support is not binding until the delegates cast their votes, which party officials said would take place between Aug. 1 and Aug. 7. (source, source)
• There is currently no discussion about an alternative to Vice President Harris, although West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin floated re-registering as a Democrat to challenge her, though acknowledged he would not do so, instead calling for a “mini-primary.” (source)
• Vice President Harris also needs to select a vice president. Reporting of those currently being considered includes Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker, North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. (source) Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer was initially on the list, but on July 22 announced that she will be the co-chair of Vice President Harris’s campaign, and waved away speculation about joining the ticket, saying “I am not leaving Michigan.” (source)

General Election

• A Quinnipiac University National Poll released July 22, found that Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are neck and neck.
  ◦ According to the poll, 46 percent have a favorable view toward Trump, while 49 percent have an unfavorable view. ◦ 37 percent have a favorable view of Harris, while 51 percent have an unfavorable view. (source)
• In her statement announcing her candidacy, Vice President Harris directly invoked Project 2025. President Trump has publicly distanced himself from Project 2025. (source) New data shows that most Americans are now hearing about Project 2025, and its unfavorable ratings have jumped considerably since late June. Unsurprisingly, much of this uptick is among Democrats. (source)◦ Although President Trump continues to distance himself from Project 2025, an analysis has shown that more than 140 members of his administration were involved in the effort. (source)
• Policy debates in Washington will be re-oriented through the prism of Vice President Harris’s positions. There will be particular media attention around areas where she may differ from President Biden. We already see this playing out in foreign policy (source) and domestic policy. (source)
• On the Democratic side, the Biden-Harris switch may have narrowed this enthusiasm gap. Harris’s consolidation of support, money and delegates has happened rapidly, eliminating the possibility of a drawn out and divisive challenge for the nomination.
• The next four weeks leading up to the Democratic convention are critical for both parties: Democrats need to re-introduce Vice President Harris and launch her vice-president as well, while Republicans need to define Vice President Harris and home in on the core messages they will advance against her.

What’s Our Take?

After ten days of tumultuous, startling and frightening political developments, we can see the contours of a more typical campaign season taking shape.

The next 100 days until the election could continue to see upheaval, but with Democrats overwhelmingly uniting behind Harris, the race for president looks nothing like it did just ten days ago. Most of the angst and concern about the Party’s prospects in November has been replaced by optimism of a fair fight for the White House.

Democrats have an opportunity to seize the momentum with their new candidate, their convention on the horizon and donors making an unprecedented show of support.

However, if we’ve learned anything over the last eight years, it’s never count out former President Donald Trump and his ability to dominate the news cycle. How will the Trump campaign adapt to the new reality of the race? So far, they’re sticking to their plan and their message. But will their strategy hold up now that he is the oldest candidate ever to secure the presidential nomination in either major party? Can the Democrats turn the tables on Trump and his age?

The race will now crystallize and the campaign with the better message and stronger operation will likely prevail.