Better Than Hitting Refresh


This Election Day, the New York Times data unit – The Upshot – wants you to forget the exit polls and use their new tool for watching, and predicting, election returns. They think their predictor will help track results all in one place in dozens of key races. So, don’t worry about hitting refresh on dozens of state board of election websites and make your way over to The Upshot. There, they promise to adjust the Associated Press’ reported results “based on what we know about where the votes have come from.” They say their “adjusted leads will be based solely on current and historical returns” and will not “use data from exit polls, or any forecasts from Senate models.” The hope is that this new tool will help election watchers at home not only predict the results, but do so accurately. Using the number of votes left to be counted and their partisan split, they Times will make an educated guess, even adjusting for turnout and updating as the results come in. They warn that their model won’t be perfect but are hoping people make them their second screen for results watching. Read all about it here.