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In today’s polarized world, it often feels like everyone is at odds, but what if the loudest voices don’t tell the full story? The Social Pressure Index (SPI) was fielded by Populace from May to June of 2024. SPI is a private opinion research study that reveals Americans’ true opinions on sensitive topics through a nationally representative sample of adults, specifically the gap between Americans’ privately held beliefs and their publicly stated opinions. It is based on 19,879 online interviews by YouGov, including a base sample of U.S. adults (N = 7,144).
One of the most significant findings is the social pressure to have the “right” opinion. Majority of Americans (58%) believe people cannot share their honest opinions about sensitive topics. In the past year, 61% of Americans reported avoiding expressing their true beliefs out of fear that others might find them offensive. This self-silencing behavior spans across all demographic groups.
Private opinion methods reveal that every demographic group is misrepresenting their true beliefs on various issues. For 66% of the topics—including abortion rights, school choice, legal immigration, and voter ID requirements—90% of demographic groups privately align on the same side. Suggesting that, despite disputes, there is more agreement on key issues when people feel free to speak privately.
Private misalignment extends to trust in American institutions. Public confidence in institutions like the Supreme Court (36%), the government (22%) and the media (24%) is low, but private opinion reveals even deeper distrust. In private, only 21% express confidence in the Supreme Court, 4% in the government, and 7% in the media— indicating that Americans are even less trusting of these institutions than public opinion suggest.
Narrowing the focus further, this pattern of misrepresentation is evident across political parties. In public, Democrats are 22 points more likely than Republicans to say they trust the government to tell the truth (36% vs. 14%). Yet in private, that gap nearly vanishes, shrinking to just 3 points (5% vs. 2%).
A similar shift occurs with media trust: publicly, 42% of Democrats and 16% of Republicans say they trust the media, but privately, only 9% and 3% believe this. The 26-point public divide shrinks to just 6-points in private, further reinforcing the broader trend: social pressure causes people to obscure their true beliefs, creating the illusion of greater division than exists.
While it may seem that Americans are more divided than ever, the reality is that, behind closed doors, many shares similar opinions on some of the most sensitive and divisive issues. Social pressure may influence what we say publicly, but privately, Americans of all backgrounds are more aligned than we think.
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